I’ve written more articles about Apple than any other company we’ve ever owned. If I were to lie on Dr. Freud’s couch, then you’d find there were two Vitaliys writing these articles. First, there was Vitaliy the contrarian. Despite Apple’s ginormous size and the several dozen Wall Street analysts following the company, I felt it was misunderstood by investors. Wall Street rarely looked beyond the next quarter or two. Investors always drew parallels between Apple and Nokia/Blackberry, expecting the iPhone to eventually follow their path into oblivion.
This was the theme of my earlier articles on Apple: Look past the next year or two; Apple is not Nokia; the iPhone is software in a hardware package, and thus there is a recurrence of revenue that is underappreciated. (Nokia with its Blackberry did not have the brand relationship nor the recurrence.)
And then there was Vitaliy the geek, who – I am almost embarrassed to admit – has owned every iPhone (except 8: I skipped to X). I cannot remember a single company I ever owned that elicited such a strong emotional response from me, both as a stock and as a maker of great products.
But lately my articles about Apple have been of a different kind: bittersweet goodbye letters to the stock. I became disillusioned with Tim Cook’s efforts to create a new category of products (Apple failed at building a car), and the stock price has appreciated to the point where the valuation demands that I have to a clearer crystal ball about Apple’s future than I possess.
I get a feeling I am not saying final goodbyes. Investors’ relationships with Apple are somewhat binary – it’s either love or hate; there is no middle ground. Today Apple is loved. At some point in the future that will not be the case.
So, how does one invest in this overvalued market? Our strategy is spelled out in this fairly lengthy article.
Vitaliy Katsenelson is chief investment officer at Investment Management Associates in Denver, Colo, which has a position in both Apple and Micron Technology. He is the author of “Active Value Investing” (Wiley) and “The Little Book of Sideways Markets” (Wiley). Read more on Katsenelson’s Contrarian Edge blog.