How Amazon could lose its health-care bid while drug distributor stocks win

Amazon.com has been one of the most innovative and disruptive companies of this century, with incredible success in areas that lie outside of what has been historically perceived as its core business (book selling). Thus every announcement or speculation that Amazon will enter into a particular industry sends stocks of that industry into a tailspin. Investors Read more about How Amazon could lose its health-care bid while drug distributor stocks win[…]

Welch vs Bezos | Vitaliy Katsenelson Contrarian Edge

I am going to be in South Florida February 21-25 (Wednesday-Sunday). I will spend a few hours in Fort Lauderdale on Wednesday afternoon. I am attending a conference in South Beach Wednesday-Friday and then will spend Friday-Sunday in the Delray Beach area. I’ll try to organize reader get togethers while I’m in Florida, but I’m not Read more about Welch vs Bezos | Vitaliy Katsenelson Contrarian Edge[…]

Options, Hurricanes and Hedging | Vitaliy Katsenelson Contrarian Edge

The purpose of my scribbles is not to provide you with a fish but to teach you how to fish (though sometimes some fish will sneak in). The scribble I am about to share with you I wrote to IMA’s clients in January 2018. Its purpose was to explain why we were going to start Read more about Options, Hurricanes and Hedging | Vitaliy Katsenelson Contrarian Edge[…]

Stock and bond investors are now paying the price for the Fed’s dangerous experiment

The Federal Reserve’s changing of the guard — the end of the Janet Yellen’s tenure and the beginning of the Jerome Powell era — has me remembering what it was like to grow up in the former Soviet Union. Back then, our local grocery store had two types of sugar: The cheap one was priced Read more about Stock and bond investors are now paying the price for the Fed’s dangerous experiment[…]

What will the stock market do next?

I’ve been asked to comment on the most recent market decline. My initial reaction was, markets go up and they go down. America is a great country but the US Constitution doesn’t guarantee always-rising markets. I sat down and I wanted to write a reassuring message. I wanted to express my empathy. Somehow, I found that my reservoir of empathy was empty: After Read more about What will the stock market do next?[…]

Antifragility, Path Dependency, and Value Investing (Part 1)

Today I am going to do something we rarely do. I will share a large excerpt from IMA’s last quarterly letter to clients. Our quarterly letters are somewhat unconventional in that they provide an in-depth look at our investment process and explain in great detail every major decision that went into each client’s portfolio during the quarter. We are somewhat embarrassed Read more about Antifragility, Path Dependency, and Value Investing (Part 1)[…]

Antifragility, Path Dependency, and Value Investing (Part 2)

Path dependency is a very important concept. It’s something we constantly think about, and thus, we’ll take a small detour to explore it. In addition to our traditional quality analysis, which falls into three buckets (business, balance sheet, and management), we also look at companies through the slightly different lens of fragility. We owe our Read more about Antifragility, Path Dependency, and Value Investing (Part 2)[…]

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are just the Beanie Babies of the moment

If you invested in the markets circa 1999, it is hard to observe the Bitcoin mania and not experience the feeling that you’ve seen this movie before and know how it will end – in losses and tears. The internet was a great idea that convinced a lot of great minds to invest capital and Read more about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are just the Beanie Babies of the moment[…]