Stock and bond investors are now paying the price for the Fed’s dangerous experiment

The Federal Reserve’s changing of the guard — the end of the Janet Yellen’s tenure and the beginning of the Jerome Powell era — has me remembering what it was like to grow up in the former Soviet Union. Back then, our local grocery store had two types of sugar: The cheap one was priced Read more about Stock and bond investors are now paying the price for the Fed’s dangerous experiment[…]

What will the stock market do next?

I’ve been asked to comment on the most recent market decline. My initial reaction was, markets go up and they go down. America is a great country but the US Constitution doesn’t guarantee always-rising markets. I sat down and I wanted to write a reassuring message. I wanted to express my empathy. Somehow, I found that my reservoir of empathy was empty: After Read more about What will the stock market do next?[…]

Antifragility, Path Dependency, and Value Investing (Part 1)

Today I am going to do something we rarely do. I will share a large excerpt from IMA’s last quarterly letter to clients. Our quarterly letters are somewhat unconventional in that they provide an in-depth look at our investment process and explain in great detail every major decision that went into each client’s portfolio during the quarter. We are somewhat embarrassed Read more about Antifragility, Path Dependency, and Value Investing (Part 1)[…]

Antifragility, Path Dependency, and Value Investing (Part 2)

Path dependency is a very important concept. It’s something we constantly think about, and thus, we’ll take a small detour to explore it. In addition to our traditional quality analysis, which falls into three buckets (business, balance sheet, and management), we also look at companies through the slightly different lens of fragility. We owe our Read more about Antifragility, Path Dependency, and Value Investing (Part 2)[…]

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are just the Beanie Babies of the moment

If you invested in the markets circa 1999, it is hard to observe the Bitcoin mania and not experience the feeling that you’ve seen this movie before and know how it will end – in losses and tears. The internet was a great idea that convinced a lot of great minds to invest capital and Read more about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are just the Beanie Babies of the moment[…]

Uninvestable Tesla | Vitaliy Katsenelson Contrarian Edge

Tesla is an uninvestable stock for me, not just because of its high valuation but also because it fails our fairly basic quality test, which I shamelessly borrowed from Warren Buffett: Would I still buy this stock if right after the purchase the stock market were to close for ten years? If you are a big Tesla Read more about Uninvestable Tesla | Vitaliy Katsenelson Contrarian Edge[…]

These clues tell you if a company is making a dumb acquisition

As a shareholder, you do well to place more emphasis on risk than on reward. Corporate management usually does the opposite, and this is why most large acquisitions fail. In fact, I assume from the start that an acquisition will fail — or at least will turn out not nearly as profitable as the picture Read more about These clues tell you if a company is making a dumb acquisition[…]

The double trap for Tesla investors predicting the future

The iPhone was an enormous gamble, as its pushed the limits of then-available technology – the microprocessor, screen, battery, and wireless capability were beyond what seemed possible in 2007. Undoubtably, if Apple hadn’t created the iPhone, someone else would have created a similar device later. But when? There is no way to know, but the Read more about The double trap for Tesla investors predicting the future[…]

Bitcoin – Millennials Fake Gold

I’ve been asked about Bitcoin a lot lately. I’ haven’t written anything about it because I find myself in an uncomfortable place in agreeing with the mainstream media: It’s a bubble. Bitcoin started out as what I’d call “millennial gold” – the young (digital) generation looked at it as their gold substitute. Bitcoin is really Read more about Bitcoin – Millennials Fake Gold[…]